Defining the Job Outlook in the 2026 Market

Key Takeaways:

• Job outlook uses real-world data to inform you if a certain career is growing or declining over a period of time.
• Job outlook is important because it ensures there’s job sustainability and provides insight into the future demand of a specific career field.
• The fastest-growing jobs from 2024 to 2034 include wind turbine technicians, solar installers, nurse practitioners, data scientists, information security analysts, medical and health services managers, physical therapist assistants, actuaries, operations research analysts, and physicians assistants.

Have you ever thought about checking the job outlook for your dream career? This is actually an aspect of career planning that many students often overlook. Job outlook statistics will use real data to predict whether the demand for a career is increasing or decreasing. And if you haven’t looked into it, now is the time to start. In this guide, we’ll cover the definition of job outlook, why it’s important, and how to look at the data to help you make choices about your future.

What Does Job Outlook Mean?

Knowing your dream job’s projected growth gives you valuable insight into how easy it will be for you to get employed in that particular occupation. Since most careers require years of education, and often student loan debt, growth predictions can help you determine if the time, money, and effort you invest will help you land a job after graduation.

An easy way to evaluate a career is by checking its job outlook, which shows you how quickly employment in that field is expected to grow. The projected growth rate is usually shown in percentages and can help you understand future job opportunities:

• A projected growth rate of 14% or more indicates that the job is growing faster than average. Thumbs up—this is great news for you!
• Projected growth rates between 9% and 13% also indicate an increase in job opportunities, but at a slightly slower rate.
• Projected growth rates between 2% and 8% indicates job opportunities are on the rise, although the rate of increase is rather slow.
• Projected growth rates that are any lower than 2% or show a decline. You may find it difficult to get employed in any job that has a low or negative projected growth rate.

What factors affect job outlook?

There are certain factors that may impact a job’s outlook. These may include:

• Economic conditions: During recessions or times of inflation, there may be fewer job openings and less demand for non-essential positions. However, economic growth often leads to higher wages, more job opportunities, and job stability.
• Industry trends: New technology, changes in consumer spending, and market demand can create new jobs, reshape existing roles, or cause others to disappear. Growing fields like healthcare, digital marketing, and the tech sphere continue to add jobs, while industries such as newspaper publishing may decline due to the changes in how people consume media.
• Skill shortages: When employers need specialized skills that few people have, job opportunities and pay often increase for those who are qualified. However, these shortages may also slow the overall growth of a business by delaying hiring and decreasing work productivity.

How job outlook is measured

To give you an accurate job outlook for each career, the BLS projects future employment trends using a six-step process. These aren’t just guesses, either. This process is what makes the BLS one of the most reliable sources for career planning. Here’s how they do it:

1. Labor force: The BLS looks at the trends happening in the population’s growth to get an estimate of how many people may be working in the future.
2. Aggregate economy: Using all the factors that can affect a job’s outlook, the BLS predicts the economic growth that will take place.
3. Final demand: This step predicts which industries will grow by looking at how people, businesses, and the government spend money.
4. Industry output: Using an input-output model, the BLS estimates how much each industry needs to produce to meet the demand of its consumers.
5. Industry employment: The BLS uses government surveys to look at employment data to see how many jobs each industry will need.
6. Occupational employment: To determine which jobs will grow or decline over the decade, the BLS uses a product called the National Employment Matrix.

Example of career projections for industrial engineers

When looking at a specific occupation in the Occupational Outlook Handbook, you’ll find employment projections under the “Job Outlook” tab. For example, here’s what it says for industrial engineers:

• Growth rate (%): “Employment of industrial engineers is projected to grow 11 percent from 2024 to 2034.”
• Predicted job openings: “About 25,200 openings for industrial engineers are projected each year, on average, over the decade.”
• Replacement needs: “Many of those openings are expected to result from the need to replace workers who transfer to different occupations or exit the labor force, such as to retire.”
• Employment outlook description: “Industrial engineers focus on reducing internal costs, making their work valuable in manufacturing and other industries, such as consulting and engineering services and research and development firms. As more companies look to lower costs, demand is expected to increase for industrial engineers to optimize production processes, manage supply chains and logistics, and provide expertise on automation.”

To create each job outlook, the BLS uses reliable sources like:

• The Current Population Survey (CPS) and Current Employment Statistics (CES) for industry and occupational employment projections.
• The S. Census Bureau to determine how many people will be working in the future.
• National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and Industry Economic Accounts (IEAs) to estimate how industries will grow.

What’s the difference between job growth and job openings?

While job growth and job openings might sound the same, they actually measure different aspects of a career.

• Job growth: This refers solely to newly created positions in an industry because of how much it is expanding.
• Job openings: This includes both new jobs and existing positions that need to be filled because of people leaving that specific industry.

Why job outlook matters in career planning

Considering a job’s outlook is an important part of career planning. While a certain career might seem exciting, you’ll need to consider if it will remain in demand once you graduate. A job’s outlook can help you determine how fast that position is growing and its long-term sustainability.

For example, if you’re interested in becoming an interior designer, researching the Occupational Outlook Handbook can give you a realistic perspective. Comparing the data you find across similar occupations can help you feel more confident in your decision. This way, you’re not only following your dream, you’re also being realistic about your future.

What to do if your dream job has low growth

If your dream industry isn’t projected to grow, don’t be discouraged. There still may be plenty of jobs available. Let’s look at high school teachers, for example. Even though employment growth is projected to decline by 2% in the next decade, there are still 66,200 job openings a year due to retirements or career changes.

If your career choice has low growth, that doesn’t necessarily mean you won’t get a job or be successful. Work on building a network of professionals to help open doors and develop skills that will set you apart. You might even consider relocation options if there are better opportunities for your dream job.

Where Things Stand in the Current Job Market

Here is an overview of the 10 fastest-growing occupations from 2024 to 2034 and their number of job opportunities available:

Discovering the Projected Growth Rate of Your Dream Job

Looking at a job’s outlook can give you valuable insight into your future. This shouldn’t be the only factor in your career decision, but it can give you helpful information. Remember, low job growth doesn’t mean no opportunity—and high job growth doesn’t guarantee your success. If you’re truly passionate about a career, go for it. The people who succeed are often the ones who are determined to make it work.

One of the most efficient ways to determine your future job’s projected growth is by using College Raptor’s Career Finder—just type in your dream job (or any job you’re curious about) in the search bar that pops up. This will take you to a page that includes all the information you need to know about your dream job. In addition to projected job growth, you will also find information on median wages, ideal majors, necessary skills, and more.